It's time for Kevin Warsh's big debut as the new chair of the Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee meets this week, and will make an interest rate decision by Wednesday, June 17.Markets expect that the FOMC won’t do much of anything for now. But the backdrop to this meeting is anything but calm, as Warsh takes the reins from Jerome Powell, who faced relentless pressure from President Trump to cut rates.The central bank's decisionmakers are meeting as inflation is ticking up again, by 4.2% in May’s consumer price index. Producer prices on goods and services rose even faster at 6.5%, which could mean consumers will feel more of a pinch soon.This current bout of inflation is tricky for the Fed because it’s driven by a spike in energy prices caused by the war in Iran. But food and energy prices tend to be too volatile to inform the Fed’s decisions, said Andrew Clinton, head of Clinton Investment Management.“That's why historically they've looked through headline inflation, that is, that include food and energy, to the core inflationary numbers,” he said.Core inflation last month was a lot closer to the Fed’s target rate of 2%, at 2.9% in the CPI. Fed officials might be tempted to think this spike in inflation is temporary.Except that’s what they did a couple years ago — and it didn’t work out.“The Fed's error in 2021 was precisely this, was to assume that the supply shocks were temporary, transitory, in the word of the day, and they were caught flat-footed,” said Peter Conti-Brown, a professor of financial regulation at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.Fed officials don’t want to make that mistake again. So, the bond market has started to indicate that it thinks the Fed will probably have to deal with inflation, said Derek Tang, an economist at the research firm MPA Macro.“They do expect more of a chance the Fed might have to raise its policy interest rate sooner rather than later, and that's making some of these bond yields rise,” he said.But the White House keeps pushing for the Fed to go in the opposite direction.“President Trump does have a history of saying he wants lower interest rates,” Tang said.He also has a recent history of threatening the Fed. The Justice Department opened criminal investigations into former Chair Jay Powell and Fed Governor Lisa Cook, whom Trump also tried to fire.So, what’s the new chair, Kevin Warsh, to do? One option, said Peter Conti-Brown, is to say less.“The more opaque the Fed is relative to its future policy position, the harder it is to be pinned down by politicians who want to beat up on it,” he said.But there’s a challenge in that for Warsh: He’s just one of 12 members on the FOMC. And they might not all want to stay quiet.