The Social Security clock is ticking faster than anyone thought a year ago. The Penn Wharton Budget Model now projects the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance Trust Fund will be depleted by 2032, consistent with the latest government estimates and one quarter earlier than last year’s projection of 2033.
For the roughly 67 million Americans who depend on Social Security benefits, the math is straightforward and uncomfortable: once the OASI trust fund hits zero, ongoing payroll tax revenue would cover only about 83% of scheduled benefits. That’s not a hypothetical. It’s now projected to happen within six years.
What the numbers actually say
The March 2026 report from the Penn Wharton Budget Model, a nonpartisan research initiative housed at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School, forecasts OASI depletion by 2032. The combined OASDI funds, which include both retirement and disability insurance, are expected to run dry by 2034.
These figures land squarely in line with the June 2026 SSA Trustees Report, which similarly projects OASI depletion in late 2032. Last year, both sets of projections had pegged that date at 2033. The timeline moved up.
