Stocks and Bonds Rally as Oil Falls on Iran Deal: Markets Wrap

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June 15, 2026 - 10:18

4 minutes

(Bloomberg) — A global relief rally drove stocks and bonds higher while oil tumbled to a three-month low after the US and Iran agreed to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.European stocks climbed 0.9% to shatter a pre-war record high. Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 2.1%, while those for the S&P 500 rose 1.3%. Brent traded below $84 a barrel. Gold and Bitcoin posted strong gains while the dollar headed for a two-week low. European bonds outperformed their global peers.The agreement between Washington and Tehran paves the way to end a three-month conflict that has claimed thousands of lives and upended financial markets. The resumption of oil flows from the Middle East would help unwind the premium embedded in crude prices, offering comfort to policymakers battling inflation.“Risk appetite is back on, but the issue is to know whether the Strait fully reopens and when it actually does,” said Christopher Dembik, senior investment manager at Pictet Asset Management. “Trump doesn’t have a great track record of lasting deals in the Middle East, so there’s a risk of tensions spiking back during the summer.”The waterway will reopen upon the signing of the deal on Friday, President Trump said in a post on Truth Social. The event would then trigger the start of 60 days of talks on Iran’s nuclear program.While neither side released the text of the agreement, the broad contours had circulated for days. Even as he celebrated the deal, Trump told the New York Times that if an agreement isn’t reached on nuclear, he could restart military attacks.“It’s not a permanent solution, so a significant risk premium will likely be priced into markets,” said George Moran, European macro strategist at RBC. “But, if oil stays around $80-85 it certainly takes a good amount of pressure off central bankers’ shoulders.”Investors embraced risk assets, betting that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would likely help ease inflation pressures and reinforce bets for lower interest rates. Swaps traders are pricing about a 70% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve interest-rate hike by December, down from about 80% on Friday.The yield on 10-year Treasuries slid four basis points to 4.44%. It may decline toward the 4.20% level as inflation concerns ease, according to broker ACCM.What Bloomberg Strategists Say…“The dollar is set to weaken this week with crude oil after the US and Iran announced plans to sign a peace accord on Friday. Extended declines for oil will bolster the narrative that inflation may have once more peaked. That sets up equities and bonds to advance as war trades unwind.”— Garfield Reynolds, MLIV Asia Team Leader. Click here for the full analysis.Beyond geopolitics, the next major event risk for markets looms on Wednesday when the Fed votes on interest rates for the first time under Kevin Warsh as chair. Traders are also waiting for a swath of other central bank decisions this week.“The key question is whether recent price pressures prove temporary or become embedded in broader price dynamics,” said Laura Cooper, global investment strategist and head of macro credit at Nuveen. “A de-escalation could reduce concerns about a persistent energy shock, but is unlikely on its own to shift policy guidance.”StocksThe Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.9% as of 9:13 a.m. London time S&P 500 futures rose 1.2% Nasdaq 100 futures rose 2.1% Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1% The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 3% The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rose 2.8% CurrenciesThe Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2% The euro rose 0.3% to $1.1606 The Japanese yen was little changed at 160.13 per dollar The offshore yuan was little changed at 6.7584 per dollar The British pound rose 0.2% to $1.3432 CryptocurrenciesBitcoin rose 2.7% to $65,668.2 Ether rose 2.9% to $1,717.87 BondsThe yield on 10-year Treasuries declined four basis points to 4.44% Germany’s 10-year yield declined four basis points to 2.95% Britain’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 4.78% CommoditiesBrent crude fell 4.3% to $83.55 a barrel Spot gold rose 2.5% to $4,326.50 an ounce This story was produced with the assistance of Bloomberg Automation.–With assistance from Julien Ponthus, Levin Stamm, Neil Campling, Shikhar Balwani and James Hirai.©2026 Bloomberg L.P.