Leading economists at all four major banks are now predicting the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave interest rates on hold at 4.35 per cent on Tuesday following its regular meeting.Members of the RBA's Monetary Policy Board head into their two-day meeting this afternoon for their all important decision on whether borrowers will get interest rate relief.Top of mind will likely be what will become of the Middle East ceasefire and whether it will drive down fuel prices, the ever-present problem of inflation and the looming restoration of the full fuel excise at the end of the month.Going into the meeting all signs point to a decision to hold, with top economists from CBA, ANZ, NAB, Westpac and HSBC predicting rates will remain the same.Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis, who formerly worked at the RBA advising the board, as late as Friday reaffirmed her view the board would hold."Although inflation remains above target, the previous three rate increases have given the monetary policy board time to assess cross-cutting trends of weak consumer and housing markets versus high inflation pressures and a secular boom in data centres and related investment," she wrote in an economic update from the bank."The recent run of inflation and labour market data has been a bit mixed, supporting the case for a pause."She's predicting rate rises in August and September instead.Luci Ellis is tipping two more rate hikes before cuts next year. (
Are we in for a prolonged pause on interest rates? Some economists think so
Most experts are tipping interest rates will remain on hold but the question is when will they come down.
TL;DRAI
RBA maintains 4.35% rates with analysts forecasting no cuts until Q3 2027; consensus is prolonged pause despite mixed inflation signals. Extended high-rate environment will pressure enterprise IT budgets and reduce venture funding availability for tech startups through 2027.
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