Australia’s Reserve Bank is expected to keep its cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% when it meets on June 16, 2026. That would make it the first time this year the central bank hasn’t reached for the rate hike lever.
After three consecutive 25-basis-point increases in 2026 alone, the RBA appears ready to take a breath. Market consensus sits at roughly 97% in favor of a hold.
From cuts to hikes and back to pause
Back in February 2025, the central bank cut rates for the first time since 2020, signaling confidence that inflation was finally coming under control. That optimism didn’t last.
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sent fuel and commodity prices climbing, dragging inflation expectations back up with them. The RBA responded with a series of hikes in 2026, pushing the cash rate to its current 4.35% as of the May 6 meeting.
