The outbreak of war across the Middle East following Oct. 7, 2023, has drawn in the three major power blocs of the region — Israel, the Gulf countries, and Iran — but the fourth, Turkey, has stood back and bided its time.Though the country has received less attention as it has largely stayed out of the recent chaos, Turkey’s strategic position continues to play a fundamental role in shaping the trajectory of the Middle East. The government of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has overhauled the country’s foreign policy and maneuvered to establish it as a great regional power. The degradation of Iran, its centuries-old foe, is set to be just the latest strike of good fortune.Turkey most recently flexed its muscles behind the scenes; media reports alleged that Erdogan personally called President Donald Trump to warn against an alleged plan to send a heavily armed Kurdish force into Iran, an intervention that caused the plan to be scrapped.
The past 20 years have seen Turkey reassert itself to an extent not seen since its predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, dominated the entire Middle East. It combined its strong military, impressive defense industry, willingness to deploy its forces abroad, and growing soft power to help shape the modern Middle East.
