Research
June 16, 2026
Turkey is reemerging as a central actor in the Middle East—but not as the neo-Ottoman power its domestic rhetoric suggests. Surrounded by wars and regional fault lines, Ankara is trying to manage disorder, not dominate it.
Turkey’s rivalry with Israel has become a structural constraint, shaping nearly every regional file—Syria, the Eastern Mediterranean, Washington lobbying, and the Red Sea-Horn of Africa corridor. Syria remains the central test of Turkey’s regional influence.
For Washington, Turkey is neither model nor spoiler—it is a consequential middle power whose interests partly overlap with U.S. priorities in theaters where America wants to reduce its involvement. U.S. policy should anchor Turkey in NATO, manage the Turkish-Israeli rivalry before it turns kinetic, and cooperate on Syria, connectivity, and regional stabilization.
