Global alcohol consumption is expected to enter a sustained decline over the next ten years, despite continued population growth and rising demand in some emerging markets. This is according to a new long-term outlook by the specialized research firm IWSR, cited by Reuters.
The report shows that corporate sales across the sector have been shrinking steadily since 2023, affecting even industry leaders such as Diageo, maker of Johnnie Walker, and brewing giant Anheuser-Busch InBev. The prolonged slowdown has already led to a notable decline in company valuations.
After a short-lived post-pandemic rebound, beverage producers are now facing a fundamentally different market environment. Key pressures on demand include the rising cost of living, changing consumer habits, growing health awareness, and the unexpected impact of new weight-loss medications. In its first comprehensive ten-year forecast covering 160 markets, IWSR analysts state that they do not expect global alcohol consumption volumes to stabilize before 2031.
Even looking further ahead to 2035, total market volumes are projected to remain around 1% below last year’s levels, despite the global adult population being forecast to grow by 9%. In practical terms, this means people will drink less on average: annual global consumption of pure alcohol per capita is expected to fall by the equivalent of two bottles of spirits or one case of wine per person each year.
