Market Snapshot
In the “Iran Airspace Closure by June” market, the odds for a June 12 closure are currently at 29.5% YES, slightly up from 28% a day ago. The “US Forces Enter Iran” market shows a 21.5% likelihood of a US invasion by the end of 2026. Meanwhile, the “Iran Regime Survival” market remains highly supportive of regime endurance, with a 97.8% YES rating.
Key Takeaways
The drone attack appears to increase the likelihood of Iran closing its airspace, as indicated by market pricing.
Markets suggest a heightened potential for US ground operations in response to Iran’s actions against the Fifth Fleet.
