## Market Snapshot
In the “Iran closes its airspace by May 31” market, YES is priced at 18.5%, down from 38% a day ago. The “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027” market shows a YES pricing of 19.5%, up from 18% 24 hours ago. The “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31” market remains steady at 66% YES.
## Key Takeaways
– Recent US strikes on Iranian vessels appear to increase the likelihood of Iran closing its airspace, as reflected by market pricing. – The probability of a US invasion of Iran seems to have risen slightly in response to the reported military actions. – Market pricing suggests continued skepticism about the normalization of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by the deadline.
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