Market Snapshot
In the “US-Iran Diplomatic Meeting Predictions” market, the odds of a qualifying diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026, are currently priced at 66.8% YES, down from 68% earlier. The “US-Iran Nuclear Deal by June” market shows a 17.5% YES probability, a decrease from 22%. The “Iran Uranium Enrichment” market is at 11.5% YES, down from 12%.
Key Takeaways
The news of President Trump considering military options appears to decrease the chances of a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026.
Markets suggest a lower likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30, as military considerations take precedence.
