Market Snapshot
The market for Iran closing its airspace by June 12 is currently priced at 22.5% YES, reflecting increased tension. The market for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 is priced at 66.6% YES, suggesting a decrease in diplomatic engagement likelihood. For a potential strike on Iran by France, UK, or Germany by June 30, the market is priced at 1.1% YES, indicating low expectation of such an event.
Key Takeaways
The escalation in military actions appears to increase the likelihood of Iran closing its airspace, consistent with YES outcome support.
The current diplomatic tensions suggest a lower probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by the end of June, consistent with YES pricing.
