Market Snapshot
The “Israel strikes 4 countries in 2026” market is currently priced with a 34% likelihood for a YES outcome, showing an increase from 30% in the past 24 hours. The “Israel-Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026” market is at 3% YES, down from 8% a week ago.
Key Takeaways
The report of Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon appears to increase the likelihood of Israel striking four countries in 2026.
Continued airstrikes and displacement suggest a decreased likelihood of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah.
