## Market Snapshot
The “Israel Strikes in 2026” market currently suggests a 47.2% probability of YES for Israel striking four countries in 2026, up from 23% in the last 24 hours. The “Israel x Hezbollah Permanent Peace Deal by May 31, 2026” market shows a 20.1% probability of YES, a significant increase from 2% a day ago.
## Key Takeaways
– The recent Hezbollah shelling appears to increase market confidence in potential Israeli military retaliation, supportive of YES outcomes in multiple-strike scenarios. – Markets suggest a decreased likelihood of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah by the end of May 2026, consistent with renewed hostilities. – The news appears to have had no major effect on markets concerning potential Iranian military action against neighbors, indicating the focus remains on Israel and Hezbollah.
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