Market Snapshot
The “Israel Strikes in 2026” market currently prices at 32.5% YES, down from 35% in the past 24 hours. The “Israel-Hezbollah Permanent Peace Deal” market shows a 3% YES probability for a deal by June 15, 2026, slightly up from 2% a day earlier.
Key Takeaways
The reported Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon appear to increase the probability of Israel striking multiple countries in 2026.
The escalation in hostilities suggests a reduced likelihood of a ceasefire extension between Israel and Lebanon.
