Academia
Thailand and other ASEAN members may be tempted to treat the junta’s staged transition as a way out of the impasse. But normalization would reward the main driver of Myanmar’s regional crisis.
Myanmar military soldiers stand next to Starlink devices on Oct. 20, 2025, seized during a raid on the KK Park online scam center in Myawaddy, Karen State, Myanmar. (AFP/Myanmar Military Information Team)
Recent regional security analyses suggest that a tactically resurgent Myanmar military and growing "fatigue" among member states could prompt ASEAN to normalize relations with the junta in Naypyidaw. However, this perspective fundamentally misdiagnoses the root cause of the region's instability.While these analyses highlight recent junta military advances, they ignore the systemic decay hollowing out the Tatmadaw from within. The regime's manpower is increasingly an illusion; replacing decimated elite combat regiments and experienced commanders with forced conscripts, who are frequently drugged and deployed as human shields, severely degrades actual combat capability.
Furthermore, the catastrophic drop in Defense Service Academy applications reveals a total collapse in institutional prestige and voluntary Bamar support. Relying on indiscriminate airstrikes and expendable infantry is an unsustainable strategy for long-term victory.
