El Niño conditions are developing and are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on Tuesday warned.The map issued by WMO showed below normal rain over almost all of India. (PTI)A new WMO El Niño/La Niña update indicates an 80% likelihood of an El Niño event during June–August 2026. Probabilities for El Nino conditions to continue until at least November are near or above 90%. Most forecast models suggest it will be at least moderate – and possibly strong, WMO flagged.Rainfall is likely to be below normal during the June–September 2026 southwest monsoon season across much of South Asia, with the strongest signal over central regions, according to a seasonal forecast by WMO issued on April 30. The map issued by WMO showed below normal rain over almost all of India.WMO El Niño updates are based on a consensus of models from WMO Global Producing Centres, experts from National Meteorological and Hydrological Services and climate prediction centres around the world. They are produced through a collaborative effort between the WMO and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI).“The science is clear: El Niño is arriving on our doorstep in the coming months with 90% certainty. The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world. Impacts will hit even harder, travel even farther, and cross borders with devastating speed. The only effective response is climate action equal to the crisis – ending the addiction to fossil fuels, accelerating the shift to renewables, protecting the most vulnerable, and delivering early warning systems for all,” said UN secretary-general António Guterres, in a statement.In late April to mid-May, the sea-surface temperature in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific was approaching El Niño thresholds, according to observations from different platforms used by WMO.These increasing surface anomalies are being fed by unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific, with temperatures exceeding 6°C above average and providing a substantial reservoir of heat that is contributing to the observed surface warming.“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Niño event, which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean. The most recent El Niño, in 2023-24, was one of the five strongest on record and it played a role in the record global temperatures we saw in 2024,” said WMO secretary-general Celeste Saulo.El Nino is typically associated with increased rainfall in parts of southern South America, the southern United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia, and drier conditions over Central America, northern South America, the Caribbean, Australia, Indonesia, and parts of southern Asia.