A new study reveals that uncertainties in global climate and hydrological models can dramatically alter estimates of future crop water use and water sustainability. The findings highlight the need for multi-model approaches to better guide agricultural water management in a warming world.As climate change intensifies pressure on global water resources, accurately estimating future crop water needs and sustainability is becoming increasingly important for ensuring food security while preserving ecosystems. Yet global climate and hydrological models used to project future crop water demand and sustainability often produce substantially different results.In a new study, published in Communications Earth & Environment and jointly led by PhD student Q. Sun and postdoctoral researcher F. Bassani, we quantified how uncertainty in global climate and hydrological models propagates into estimates of crop water use and sustainability. In the study, we adopted a multi-model ensemble approach to assess future water requirements and sustainability for eight major crops under multiple climate scenarios.Results show that different climate and hydrological models can produce markedly different estimates of future crop water use and sustainability, with the largest uncertainty associated with irrigation-dependent blue water use. Model disagreement becomes even stronger at local to regional scales, particularly in agricultural hotspots already facing pressure on water resources, thus highlighting the difficulty of reliably assessing future water risks.These findings highlight the need to move beyond single-model projections and adopt ensemble-based approaches that explicitly account for uncertainty. Recognizing and transparently communicating uncertainty is essential for producing more credible projections and supporting adaptive and resilient water management in a changing climate.For further insights, read our Behind the Paper article and the full publication, and explore results on our interactive visualization and data portal drop4crop!FundingSwiss National Science Foundation (Grant 10000638)ReferencesSun, Q., Bassani, F., Tuninetti, M., and Bonetti, S. (2026). Uncertainties in global hydrological and climate models challenge future estimates of crop water use and sustainability. Communications Earth & Environment, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03621-w.