Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

The extremely high market-implied odds against a hantavirus outbreak by June 30 stem primarily from the contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster linked to a single cruise ship, which produced just eight total cases with limited person-to-person spread confined to close contacts. CDC and WHO assessments classify the risk of broader transmission or imported U.S. cases as extremely low, consistent with historical U.S. surveillance showing only sporadic Sin Nombre virus infections averaging under 30 annually since 1993 and no large-scale outbreaks. No new confirmed cases or escalating clusters have emerged in surveillance data through late May, and the virus’s rodent-borne transmission dynamics plus short incubation windows make rapid escalation before the deadline unlikely absent unforeseen rodent population surges or undetected travel-related spread.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Market Opened: May 11, 2026, 4:05 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.