This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent U.S. inflation data, with the April 2026 CPI rising to 3.8% year-over-year amid an oil price shock from Middle East conflict, has elevated market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike sometime in 2026 to near parity at 50.5% against “no.” Traders are weighing persistent energy-driven price pressures and upward revisions to the expected policy rate path against the FOMC’s current 3.65% target range and preference for a prolonged hold, as reflected in April meeting minutes and near-term futures pricing little change through year-end. Labor market stability and moderating core readings provide counterbalance, while the upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC meeting could shift consensus if inflation moderates or geopolitical risks intensify.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Market Opened: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
