US enforces blockade in Gulf of Oman, disables Gambia-flagged vessel

## Market Snapshot

The market for “Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?” currently shows a 11% probability for a YES outcome, down from 14% a day ago and 40% a week ago. The market for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” is priced at 50.5% YES, down from 58% a day ago.

## Key Takeaways

– The US enforcement of blockade measures in the Gulf of Oman appears consistent with reduced likelihood of ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31. – The ongoing US blockade suggests continued disruptions to traffic, impacting the market for normal traffic levels by July 31. – The recent CENTCOM activity is not relevant to the “Trump Project Freedom Restart Dates” market, which remains unchanged in relevance.

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