The odds of a new global temperature record being set within the next five years have increased further, as the return of the El Niño weather pattern could make 2027 the hottest year ever, the UN’s weather agency has warned.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO)’s annual update predicts an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record - up from 80% in last year’s forecast.
Global average temperatures reached 1.55C above pre-industrial levels in 2024, when the last El Niño event supercharged human-made warming primarily caused by the greenhouse gas emissions generated through burning fossil fuels.
Meteorologists expect El Niño - the natural climate phenomenon characterised by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean - to start developing as early as this month. Some forecasters say that this time around the event could become particularly powerful.
Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the WMO report, said the prediction of El Niño for the second half of 2026 “increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year”.
