In the next five years, Earth is overwhelmingly likely to surge again and again past the international climate threshold set as safe and shatter its hottest-year record along the way, according to new United Nations climate projections.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) also forecasts an overheating Arctic that warms nearly 1.66°C between now and 2030 and a dangerous drought with potential wildfires for the Amazon, a crucial part of Earth’s natural defences to lessen human-caused climate change.
Projections by the UN climate agency and the UK's Meteorological Office say there’s a 75 per cent chance that the average global temperature between 2026 and 2030 will exceed 1.5°C since pre-industrial times. That threshold is the agreed-upon limit of warming, averaged over 20 years, set in 2015 by the Paris climate agreement.
How hot will the next five years become?
There’s a 91 per cent chance that at least one of the next five years will shoot past the 1.5°C threshold and an 86 per cent chance that one of those years will smash the record for Earth’s hottest year set in 2024, the WMO report warns.
