Iran, US draft MOU suggests military de-escalation, potential blockade lift

## Market Snapshot

The market for “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” currently prices at 19.5% YES, down from 20% 24 hours ago and 32% a week ago. Meanwhile, the “Strait of Hormuz ship transit” market prices at 54.5% YES for 20 ships transiting by May 31, up from 48% 24 hours ago.

## Key Takeaways

– The reported draft MOU appears to suggest a de-escalation in US-Iran military tensions, consistent with lower likelihood of US forces entering Iran. – Market pricing suggests increased confidence in unrestricted ship transit through the Strait of Hormuz, reflecting the potential lifting of the naval blockade. – Reduced market pricing for Iranian military action against neighbors indicates perceived lower regional conflict risk.

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