PremiumOne month ago, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revealed a remarkable statistics: of the 2.0% growth in Q1 GDP, non-residential fixed investment accounted for almost 75% of said growth, or 1.38% of the final 2.0% GDP print. Drilling deeper into the components revealed that between Software (0.7% of the GDP growth) and Nonresidential Equipment (0.88%), AI - which was the primary driver behind growth in both - contributed just over 1.5% to GDP growth of 2.0%; in other words about 75% of all US growth in Q1 was due to AI.
Will $800 Billion In AI Capex Spending Boost US GDP: The Surprising Math That Leads To Disappointment
The capex "benefit" from AI is largely asymmetric: the trillions in projected spending will do little to boost US GDP as most of the underlying equipment is imported, however a sharp reversal will likely lead to GDP busting recession.
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