U.S. GDP grew 4.3% in Q3, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That far surpassed the consensus estimate among analysts, which was for a rise of 3.2% year-on-year. That’s pretty decent growth. No wonder then, that the S&P 500 ticked up another 0.88% yesterday, to come within half a percentage point of its all-time high. Traders seem to be pretty happy about where the U.S. economy is going.But some analysts are starting to worry about how much of that growth is concentrated in AI.A recent note from Pantheon Macroeconomics said that private fixed investment—a measure of how much companies are spending—”is rising only due to AI-related spending.” Analyst Oliver Allen published a chart this morning showing that all other private fixed investment is actually in decline:
“Capex intentions remain depressed, suggesting investment outside of AI-linked sectors remains weak,” he told clients in a note seen by Fortune.
Deutsche Bank said much the same thing in a recent note discussing whether AI was a bubble. “Investment in AI-related sectors is critical to GDP growth [and the] U.S. would be close to recession this year if it weren’t for tech-related spending, as other spending has flatlined post-Covid,” analysts Adrian Cox and Stefan Abrudan wrote.
