PremiumBrad Plumer and Eric NiilerNew York Times·27 May, 2026 01:42 AM10 mins to readThe Eaton fire burns in the mountains between Altadena and Mount Wilson in Los Angeles County on January 10, 2025. Photo / Loren Elliott, The New York TimesWhile global warming is still a serious threat, the decision to back away from a worst-case outlook raises questions about whether some risks have been overstated.It’s rare for technical papers about climate modelling to kick off a heated public debate, or attract attention from the White House.

But that’s