JPMorgan’s strategy team is making a straightforward argument: the stock market is too scared of rate hikes that probably aren’t coming, and that fear is creating opportunities in the least exciting corners of the market.
In a March 2026 note, the bank’s strategists laid out their case that equity markets have overpriced the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve rate increases, even as the escalating Iran conflict sends oil prices surging past uncomfortable thresholds. Their recommendation is to rotate into low-volatility defensive sectors like consumer staples and utilities.
The oil problem nobody can ignore
Brent crude hit $103 in April 2026, and oil shocks of this magnitude have an uncomfortable track record of preceding recessions.
JPMorgan slashed its year-end S&P 500 target from 7,500 to 7,200 in March, citing concerns about prolonged oil shocks and what the strategists described as investor complacency.
