JPMorgan Asset Management is making a bold call on US equities: buy the dips, because they won’t last long. Jack Caffrey, a portfolio manager at the firm, laid out a case on June 9 that American stocks have more room to run, even as some corners of the market flash overvaluation warnings.
The thesis rests on one number that’s hard to argue with. Caffrey is forecasting corporate profit growth of 22% or more for 2026, a significant acceleration from the mid-teens growth expected for 2025. In his framing, this isn’t a momentum trade or a vibes-based rally. It’s an “earnings-driven” market, which is Wall Street’s polite way of saying the gains actually have receipts.
The case for staying long
His argument is straightforward. As long as earnings revisions remain positive, meaning analysts keep nudging their profit estimates higher rather than lower, any dip in stock prices becomes a buying opportunity rather than the start of something uglier.
JPMorgan’s year-end target for the S&P 500 sits at 7,500 for 2026. That target implicitly bakes in the assumption that corporate America will deliver on the earnings front. For context, mid-teens growth is also the expectation for 2027, suggesting JPMorgan sees 2026 as the peak year in this earnings cycle before growth normalizes.
