Korea could regain wartime OPCON as early as late 2027, depending on talks with US

South Korean Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back holds talks with US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at the Pentagon in Washington, DC, on May 11, 2026. (via MND Facebook page)

The Korean Ministry of National Defense projects that if deliberations with Washington go smoothly, Korea could regain wartime operational control (OPCON) of its military by the end of 2027.“We’ll be finishing up a roadmap before the Security Consultative Meeting [in October], and that roadmap will guide us in our preparations for the OPCON transfer and what comes after,” the Defense Ministry official said while discussing the OPCON transfer with reporters on Wednesday.“We’d originally planned to have the roadmap completed during the Korea-US Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD) for the first half of this year on May 12-13, but that was delayed because there’s more to be added [to the roadmap],” the official said.Korea and the US are currently evaluating and verifying the mission capability of the Korea-led joint command that will replace the current ROK-US Combined Forces Command following the OPCON transfer, which is based on a three-stage assessment framework. The two countries have completed the evaluation (2019) and verification (2020) of initial operational capability (IOC, the first stage), and the evaluation (2022) of full operational capability (FOC, the second stage). The second-stage verification is supposed to take place during this year’s Security Consultative Meeting (SCM), an annual meeting of the top defense officials of the US and South Korea. Following verification, the two countries’ top defense officials will decide on the year of the OPCON transfer and present that to their respective presidents. Those officials will immediately carry out the evaluation and verification of full mission capability (FMC, the third stage), and propose the transfer date to their respective presidents.Once the year of the OPCON transfer has been determined, one year is reportedly enough time to complete the necessary preparations.Assuming that the two defense officials select 2027 as the target date for the OPCON transfer during this October’s SCM and complete the necessary preparations over the next year, it would be possible for the two sides, during the next SCM in October 2027, to select a transfer date sometime that year and submit that for their presidents’ consideration.That timeframe would have OPCON changing hands before US President Donald Trump is supposed to leave office on Jan. 20, 2029. But it’s uncertain whether Korea’s preferred timeframe will become a reality.Gen. Xavier T. Brunson, the commander of US Forces Korea who serves ex officio as the commander of the current Combined Forces Command, said during a US Senate Armed Services Committee hearing last month that when it comes to the OPCON transfer, it is necessary to ensure that “political expediency does not outpace the conditions.”Brunson was saying that meeting the conditions for OPCON transfer agreed upon by Korea and the US is more important than any proposed timeframe. The USFK commander’s envisioned timeline is the first quarter of 2029, which overlaps with the end of Trump’s presidency.“In every respect, the OPCON transfer is a matter decided at the level of policy and politics,” the Defense Ministry official said, suggesting that the transfer is ultimately a political decision to be made by the presidents of Korea and the US.By Kwon Hyuk-chul, staff reporterPlease direct questions or comments to [english@hani.co.kr]