## Market Snapshot
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026, is currently priced at a reduced likelihood, with recent developments suggesting a decrease in YES outcomes. Meanwhile, the market for Russian entry into cities by December 31, 2026, has seen an increase in pricing supportive of YES outcomes.
## Key Takeaways
– Putin’s statement appears to reduce the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, as markets reflect increased tensions. – The potential for Russian military escalation suggests increased chances of Russian forces entering specified cities by the end of 2026. – Markets indicate that the characterization of the Ukrainian strike as intentional could lead to a prolonged conflict, affecting ceasefire negotiations.
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