Market Snapshot
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026, is currently priced at 45.5% YES, slightly down from 46% 24 hours ago. The odds for a Ukraine peace deal by June 30 stand at 3.8% YES, having decreased from 5% in the past day.
Key Takeaways
Lavrov’s statement appears consistent with a reduced probability of imminent peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Market pricing suggests Lavrov’s comments may indicate a further decrease in the likelihood of a ceasefire agreement in the near term.
