## Market Snapshot
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026, is currently priced at 42.5% YES. This reflects a decline from 44% observed 24 hours ago and 50% a week ago. The potential entry of Russian forces into Druzkhivka by June 30 is priced at 3.8% YES, down from 5% a day ago.
## Key Takeaways
– Lavrov’s notification suggests a significant escalation, consistent with decreased likelihood of a ceasefire agreement by the end of 2026. – Market pricing implies increased likelihood of Russian military actions in Ukraine, raising the potential for Russian forces entering cities. – Current pricing of a ceasefire by December 31, 2026, appears less supportive of a peaceful resolution within the year.
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