Scientists are watching the Pacific Ocean closely as what could be one of the most powerful climate events in recorded history rapidly builds beneath its surface.
According to the most recent forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the probability of an El Niño – a periodic warming of the tropical Pacific that reshapes weather patterns across the globe – emerging by July now sits at 61 per cent.
While these events happen every few years, this one may be supercharged. NOAA gives a one-in-four chance of the event reaching “very strong” intensity, which would qualify it as a so-called ‘super’ El Niño. Such a threshold has been crossed only a handful of times in recorded history, each moment triggering droughts, floods and record temperatures across multiple continents.
What’s more, scientists who study these phenomena closely say such an event coupled with the impacts of human-caused climate change could make it unlike anything seen before.
“I would suggest there is roughly a 50 per cent chance of the event becoming the strongest in the historical record right now,” Paul Roundy, a professor of atmospheric science at the University at Albany, in the US, told BBC Science Focus. “A few weeks ago, I was suggesting maybe 20 per cent.”
