Monday 18 May 2026 10:15 am
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Monday 18 May 2026 10:16 am
LONDON, ENGLAND - MAY 18: UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer leaves 10 Downing Street on May 18, 2026 in London, England. After a disappointing set of election results for Labour on May 7, Keir Starmer has been under pressure to resign as party leader. Former Health Minister Wes Streeting has resigned his position leaving the way clear for a leadership challenge and Manchester Metro Mayor, Andy Burnham, is set to contest the Makerfield by-election that would give him a route back to Parliament also allowing him to challenge the Prime Minister. (Photo by Dan Kitwood/Getty Images)
Keir Starmer’s fate was not brought about chiefly by his lack of personality. It was the predictable result of the economic conditions that have wracked Britain for almost two decades, a political system poorly attuned to fixing them, and more than a little of his own hubris, says Andrew GriffithAnalysing why Keir Starmer failed has become something of a habit for journalists and intellectuals. New long reads arrive in weekend magazines and broadsheets with the cadence of football matches. There are only brief breaks in this rhythm, to allow for international away fixtures focused on Donald Trump, European elections, or the increasingly unstable wider world.Much like the Premier League, this is fast becoming an all-year-round fixture. Just as someone writes the “best piece you’ll read about Keir Starmer”, and you think it’s all over, a new scandal brings a fresh season of political psychoanalysis, quotes from defenestrated advisers, and breathless reporting about a “PM fighting for his political life”. That last headline seems to have been printed so often, one can’t help but wonder if it should simply be added to most papers’ mastheads to save time.Back when many of the same commentators were lauding Sir Keir as the herald of a new quiet, dignified age, some of us could already see the writing on the wall. For us, it’s not difficult to see why Keir Starmer failed and it doesn’t require a PhD in applied SW1 psychology.Keir Starmer’s fate was not brought about chiefly by his lack of personality, or by his legal background, nor was it wrought by a vengeful genie. It was the predictable result of the economic conditions that have wracked Britain for almost two decades, a political system poorly attuned to fixing them, and more than a little of his own hubris.As a former finance director, I have a pretty good grasp of the numbers. Before even David Cameron took office, economic growth in Britain was stalling. Already chilled by Blair’s decade long expansion of the regulatory state, the post financial crisis loss of risk appetite meant we never recovered our economic ‘mojo’.This is made plain by the data. Beyond GDP per capita – which is important, but which few normal people identify with – median wages have not grown above inflation since 2007. At all. In fact, they were lower in real terms in 2024 than they were before the financial crisis. Consequentially the tax take, a large part of which comes from income tax and (apart from the disproportionate amount paid by top earners) is heavily reliant on the majority of people who are somewhere near average, hasn’t grown. Instead, the Treasury has squeezed aspirational, middle-class workers whilst significantly expanding the cost and number of beneficiaries of welfare. I’ll be returning to this thought.Relentless fiscal pressureMix all of this in with an ageing population and you get relentless fiscal pressures borne by a relentlessly shrinking working age population. That same working age population has been supplemented, incompetently, with a wave of immigration that has not, and never could, keep up with the rate of housebuilding and infrastructure required.Any Prime Minister, be it placid and pusillanimous Keir Starmer or one of the greats like Churchill, Peel, or Disraeli reincarnated through the magic of AI, would have had to go at least some way towards addressing these problems to have a chance of success. And until someone does, the UK is stuck on a hamster wheel, exhausted by furious activity leading nowhere.Starmer’s chief failure is that despite possessing a historic majority he chose not to break cycle. Read through Labour’s 2024 “Change” manifesto and the mention of any of Britain’s chief economic problems is scant. There simply is not in Britain today the financial capacity to govern ‘as usual’, and yet genuine plans to change this were non-existent.There were plenty of people who believed the headline promises made about outcomes: that Britain would somehow be fairer, that 1.5m houses would magically appear, that there would – through some great weather dance to be performed by the curiously credentialed Rachel Reeves – at last be growth. Politics is full of people who make the category error of confusing outcomes with policies or plans. The former is brought about by the latter, and the latter was never given a moment’s thought by Labour.
