Whether it will be a “very strong” or even “super” El Niño remains to be seen, but the powerful Pacific Ocean pattern is expected to appear this summer.
The latest federal forecast gives the El Niño an 82% chance of emerging by July, according to a May 14 update from the Climate Prediction Center at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Many of the forecast models indicate this event could be “among the strongest El Niños in recent history,” said Zeke Hausfather, director of climate and energy at the Breakthrough Institute and a research scientist with Berkeley Earth, on May 8. However, he and others say it’s too soon to know for certain just how strong this event will be.
AccuWeather has upped its odds for a “super” El Niño to 30% by the end of the Atlantic hurricane season in November.
Either way, this summer is likely to be remembered for weather extremes shaped by El Niño’s influence, said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range expert.
