Economic pressures brought on by the Iran war, including rising oil prices and fears of higher inflation, have pushed some analysts to raise their odds of a recession, while others cautioned the economy was well-positioned to absorb the shocks of the conflict.
Some economists cautioned the U.S. economy would be able to absorb the shock of the Iran war.
Moody’s Analytics raised its recession outlook to 48.6%, near its previous high of 49% issued last week, as chief economist Mark Zandi said he was concerned recession risks are “uncomfortably high and on the rise” and warned a recession is “a real threat.”
Goldman Sachs on Tuesday increased its odds of a recession in the next 12 months to 30% from 25% and lowered its full-year GDP growth estimate to 2.1%, citing higher inflation and oil price forecasts through April while noting a recession is still unlikely.
Major energy shocks, like rising oil prices, generally don’t affect consumers’ long-term price expectations, Goldman analysts said.
