What a Gorton byelection win would mean for Reform, Greens and Labour

Polls put seat in three-way dead heat with Labour facing threats from Reform and Green party in once safe seat

The Gorton and Denton byelection is the biggest electoral test yet for Keir Starmer before what are expected to be disastrous results for Labour in the May local elections. Polls put the race in a three-way dead heat, making it nearly impossible to call.

The vote is particularly symbolic because of the threat Labour faces from Reform UK and the Green party in a once safe seat. Should Labour lose, it will put the spotlight back on Starmer’s decision to block Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, from contesting the seat.

There are big implications for Starmer’s premiership, whatever the result, but also for the wider political landscape. Here’s what it could mean.

A win for Reform UK’s candidate, Matt Goodwin, would be the biggest sign yet that Nigel Farage’s poll lead represents real voter intentions rather than being merely a symbol of dissatisfaction with the government. Goodwin rarely talks about Reform’s politics or local issues and has repeatedly made the fight a referendum on Starmer’s leadership.