A major shift may be brewing in the Pacific Ocean: Forecasters say El Niño could develop later this year. If it does, it can reshape weather patterns across the United States during the second half of 2026, as well as the Atlantic hurricane season.
What is El Niño, and why does it matter?
El Niño is part of a natural climate cycle that shows up every few years. It happens when ocean water warms in the tropical Pacific near the equator. The opposite phase is La Niña, when that same region runs cooler than average.
When such a large stretch of the Pacific warms (or cools) for months at a time, it can nudge the jet stream into a different position. That shift can change where storms track and where wet or dry patterns set up around the world. It's one of the factors AccuWeather considers when building long-range weather forecasts.
The most recent El Niños happened during the winters of 2018-19 and 2023-24.
