Losing credibility Netanyahu has acted to diminish Iran while he still can, and in doing so regain support from his allies
T
here are two ways of looking at events in the Middle East over the past year and a half. One is that the response to 7 October 2023 was a break from the past. The attack by Hamas triggered an Israeli response so vengeful that it has been impossible to fit within the boundaries set by international laws or contain geographically – the genocide in Gaza, the invasion of southern Lebanon, the occupation of the buffer zone in southwestern Syria and airstrikes across that country, and now its attacks against Iran.
Then there is the explanation that these events are part of a historical continuum. Regional peace was the result of a volatile status quo that was always vulnerable to disruption. It only looked tenable because it relied on a variety of factors that, working together, looked like a settlement. This fine balance has been tipped by an Israeli government that is now fixated on pursuing its own agenda, singlehandedly rewriting the future of the region in ways that it is unable to explain and unwilling to control.
One of the elements of this brittle peace was the presence of the Gulf powers as mediators. Gulf rapprochement with Iran was not motivated by trade or fellow feeling, but rather the pragmatic need for stability. Some Gulf states also crossed a historic red line and either recognised Israel with the signing of the Abraham accords or began a process of normalisation. Now these countries find themselves caught between two feuding sides and at risk of alienating Israel’s main ally, the US, with whom it has close military and economic ties.
