The Fed's September rate decision hinges on July CPI data due August 12, with the FOMC already split 9-3 and inflation at 3.5% year-over-year.

Fed may hold rates steady after weak July jobs report. Rate hike by September at 35.5% YES.

The Fed's 9-3 split vote and 36% market odds of a September rate hike put the August CPI print at the center of macro and crypto risk sentiment.