Mark your calendars for August 12. At 8:30 a.m. ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics drops the Consumer Price Index reading for July 2026, and the number it prints will land directly in the inbox of every Federal Reserve official preparing for September’s policy meeting.
What the forecasts say
Consensus expectations heading into the release are relatively tame. Analysts are projecting a 0.1% monthly gain for the headline CPI, the broadest measure of price changes across goods and services bought by urban households.
Core CPI, which strips out food and energy prices because of how wildly they swing, is expected to rise 0.2% month-over-month.
On an annual basis, forecasters expect headline inflation to come in at 3.4% for July, down slightly from June’s 3.5% year-over-year reading. Core CPI is projected at 2.5% annually, also a fractional step lower than the prior month.
