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Polymarket shows 53% odds of September rate hike while Fed futures markets sit at 32%

Polymarket prices a 53% chance of a September Fed rate hike while SOFR futures sit near 32%, creating a potential arbitrage gap traders are

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Polymarket shows 53% odds of September rate hike while Fed futures markets sit at 32%

Polymarket prices 53% odds of September Fed rate hike while SOFR futures imply 32%—a 20-point spread showing divergence between crypto-prediction and traditional hedging markets. For tech investors, this signals fragmented rate expectations; higher odds reduce capital supply and valuations, making Fed policy the critical pivot for 2026 deployment and M&A strategy.

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Prediction Market Traders Brace for Surprise Fed Rate Hike - Decrypt

Prediction markets now price 26.65% odds of 25bp Fed hike by July 29—up ~10 points in 24h per Polymarket—despite June inflation at 3.5%. Rate increases slow venture funding; managers expect tighter budgets and startup valuation pressure.

Timeline cronologica

lunedì 27 luglio 2026·cryptobriefing.com
Federal Reserve faces 104 economists in 36% rate hike bet as crypto markets brace for impact
All 104 economists expect the Fed to hold rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but Polymarket shows 20% hike odds. Here's what it means for Bitcoin and crypto.
lunedì 27 luglio 2026·decrypt.co
Prediction Market Traders Brace for Surprise Fed Rate Hike - Decrypt
The odds that the Fed pushes for "no change" on interest rates has fallen sharply on prediction markets in the last 24 hours.

Polymarket shows 53% odds of September rate hike while Fed futures markets sit at 32%

Confronto fonti

Polymarket shows 53% odds of September rate hike while Fed futures markets sit at 32%

Prediction Market Traders Brace for Surprise Fed Rate Hike - Decrypt

Timeline cronologica

Federal Reserve faces 104 economists in 36% rate hike bet as crypto markets brace for impact

Prediction Market Traders Brace for Surprise Fed Rate Hike - Decrypt

Traders brace for potential surprise Fed rate hike by September 2026

Prediction market traders raise odds of July Fed rate hike to 27%

Fed rate hike unlikely this week amid low market expectations

Fed meeting draws attention with 1-in-3 chance of rate hike

Futures tied to Federal Reserve interest rates hit all-time high as traders brace for July FOMC decision

Markets see just a one-in-three chance the federal reserve hikes, but chris turner of ING said to expect the FOMC to sound prepared to do so

Fed faces 27% implied probability of interest rate increase ahead of july meeting

Fed swaps no longer fully price in a september rate hike, per Bloomberg

Polymarket shows 53% odds of September rate hike while Fed futures markets sit at 32%