US airstrikes target Greater Tunb, escalating tensions with Iran. Iranian military action against a Gulf state by July 9 at 99.9% YES.

Iran targeted UAE tankers with cruise missiles in the Strait of Hormuz. Strait traffic normal by August 31 at 15.5% YES.

Iran launched missile strikes on UAE vessels, escalating regional conflict. Military action against a Gulf state by July 9 at 84% YES.