Iran accuses the US of violating the Islamabad MOU, raising tensions. US ending Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026 at 44% YES.

Iran declares the US memorandum in crisis due to ongoing violations. Meeting in UAE by September 30, 2026 at 0.6% YES.

Vague wording of provisional agreement left critical issues, including Tehran’s nuclear programme, to second phase of talks

US reimposes blockade, shattering Iran MoU. Final nuclear deal by August 13, 2026 at 1.7% YES.