Iran has announced that it is suspending all commitments under the memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the United States. The announcement follows the U.S. resuming sanctions on Iranian oil sales and military actions that Tehran claims violate the MoU, which was signed in June 2026. This memorandum had established a temporary ceasefire to ease tensions between the two nations and their allies. Markets appear to interpret Iran’s suspension as a significant setback to the prospects of reaching a final nuclear agreement by the mid-August deadline, with implications for ongoing negotiations.
Key Takeaways
Iran’s suspension of MoU commitments appears consistent with a decrease in the likelihood of a US-Iran nuclear deal.
The market pricing for a final nuclear agreement by August 13, 2026, suggests a persistent low probability, with a current YES price of around 2%.
The recent developments suggest increased geopolitical tensions, impacting the market’s expectations of a diplomatic resolution.
