Nominal GDP growth outpaces real growth for first time since early 2023, though sluggish demand signals need for further stimulus

China's GDP growth is projected to slow to 4.5% in Q2 2026, with a 79% chance it will be between 4.0% and 5.0% for the year.

Lagging consumer spending and business investment offset the boost from strong exports thanks partly to the boom in artificial intelligence.