China’s economy grew at a 4.5% year-on-year rate in the second quarter of 2026, down from 5.0% in Q1. That puts it right at the bottom edge of Beijing’s own 4.5-5% growth target for the year, which was already the lowest the country has set since 1991.
What the numbers actually say
The first quarter had looked decent on paper. A 5.0% growth rate met the upper limit of the government’s annual goal, driven largely by strong exports and manufacturing output.
The National Bureau of Statistics is set to officially release the data on July 15, 2026. Analysts have already been flagging this slowdown for weeks, and the consensus forecast of 4.5% suggests the market isn’t going to be surprised.
For context, China posted full-year GDP growth of 5.0% in 2025, meeting its prior target. The fact that 2026’s target was lowered to a 4.5-5% range tells you Beijing saw the writing on the wall months ago.
