Ayatollah Khamenei was killed in a US-Israeli airstrike, leading to increased uncertainty in Iran. Regime fall by end of 2026 at 6.5% YES.

Iran mourns Khamenei after a US-Israeli airstrike. Leadership change by December 31 at 16.5% YES.

Iran vows revenge for Khamenei's death amid escalating conflict. No head of state in Iran by end of 2026 at 2.7% YES.