Iran strikes a ship in the Strait of Hormuz, complicating peace efforts. Traffic normalization by July 31 at 56.5% YES, peace deal by June 30 at 3% YES.

Iran orders ships to turn back in the Strait of Hormuz, signaling increased tensions. Normal traffic by June at 7.8% YES.

The latest incident has amplified worries that the shipping disruptions that upended global trade for months are not over.